“THE PLAGUE OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY” (August 20, 2012)
Thus the title of today’s blog by a certain Gavyn Davies in the Financial Times. “The nature and effects of economic uncertainty have played a central rôle in macroeconomic theory for decades,” he argues. I was annoyed by the contradiction between the two statements at once, and thus I opened the blog entry. It starts and ends with John Maynard Keynes and his distinction between uncertainty and risk. Uncertainty is not measurable. Risk is, and it has thus attracted all the attention of the profession bent on mathematizing everything under the sun. The economics profession has thus eschewed uncertainty for decades and decades. In fact, it has skirted it ever since World War II. So, what is Davis about? The only thing that comes to mind is that he is defending the embattled economics profession. His own profession, too. He should attack it instead. And the main line of attack he should take is that the nature and effects of economic uncertainty have played no rôle whatsoever in macroeconomic theory for many a decade. Whence the plague of economic uncertainty, to be sure. Going back to Keynes is what the economics profession should do at this point. To Davis’ credit, uncertainty is definitely the word.