The breakup of the European Union has been bantered about for a while now. At first, the question was whether or not it would break up. This has changed. The question now is how it will break up, instead. George Soros recently came up with the notion that it would fall apart like the Soviet Union of old. Quickly and quietly, that is. Of course, there have been many conflicts on the edges of the crumbling empire. Some of them still smolder. On top of that, Vladimir Putin is now trying to put Humpty Dumpty together again. This complicates Soros’ vision in many interesting ways.

Another obvious scenario is for the European Union to regroup. In this case, Germany would undoubtedly be at the core of the new union, which would be Germanic in essence. Charlemagne would be the new union’s spiritual guide. The current difficulties in Southern Europe appear to presage this alternative. It would be buttressed by difficulties in Eastern Europe, and these appear to grow from year to year. Putin’s Eurasian Union could draw many of them closer, as well.

But the most likely scenario in my mind is for the European Union to peter out over many years. One by one, countries would abandon one bit of the binding structure after another. First the monetary union, then the border controls, and finally the educational system. The process would be rather slow and quiet. It would take some years before the last office would be abandoned and the last light would be turned off. Some ties between countries would remain, but they would be piecemeal and unstable.

This assumes global peace, it goes without saying. In the case of growing tensions around the world, which would most likely focus on the Pacific countries, the Charlemagne alternative would appear much more likely for Europe. For the time being, though, international conflict does not strike me as very likely. At least for the time being, World War III is in no-one’s long-term interest. The relative isolation that America enjoyed during and after World War II is a thing of the past. Anyhow, the breakup of the European Union is sure to attract many minds in the coming years. The game is open. Let the fun start!