Thus The Independent today. “Predictions based on population data suggest conflict will become increasingly rare,” explains the newspaper. The article is based on the work of Havard Hegre of the University of Oslo. His research, in collaboration of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, is based on a statistical model “capable of reaching into the future.” Wow! “The number of conflicts is falling,” the professor is quoted. “We expect this fall to continue.” I cannot but think of Rome at its prime. Professors of the time must have predicted similar things. The common flaw would be the belief that the future can be based upon the data from the past. This is what any statistical model would perforce assume. This is sheer nonsense in times like ours, it goes without saying. Only consider the effect of climate change, which is beyond statistical models of any kind. Thus I can already foresee another article in the newspaper several years ahead: “The Future of Statistical Models is Looking Bleak.” A safe prediction, no doubt.