ON TURKEY AND EUROPE: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (October 16, 2011)

A candidate for the membership in the European Union since 2005, Turkey is gradually losing interest in the privilege. At the same time, you argue, the Union is also losing influence in the country’s progress toward accession (“An Uncertain Path,” October 15, 2011). At first glance, the main problem is Cyprus. In addition, Turkey has “much modernizing to do,” as you put it gingerly. A closer look reveals deep antagonism toward Turkey in many countries of the Union, including France and Germany at its core. This side of the problem you leave aside. Given the entrenched attitudes of the French and Germans, the Turks know perfectly well that their chances are negligible even in the long run. So, why bother? Regardless of all the internal problems, such as the plight of the journalists and women, as well as the clampdown on the Kurds, which you dutifully list, the country’s geopolitical strengths are left out of your account. What about Turkey’s clout in the Middle East and North Africa? What about its rôle in connecting Europe to the Transcaucasian oil and gas? And what about its potential clout in the Balkans, where Turkey was still ensconced only a century ago? The Union appears to be blissfully unaware of such things, and it is thus not surprising that Turkey is looking elsewhere for greener pastures. But the Union should not be astonished if Turkey and Russia start discovering many things they have in common. Including a deep disappointment with the Union.