THE GLOBAL BUSINESS BAROMETER, AGAIN (December 9, 2014)

The plunge of stockmarkets is in the news. Among the causes most often mentioned there are tumbling oil prices, growth fears in Asia, and political uncertainty in Greece. I feel like patting the investors on their backs. Well spotted, boys! But how about the deepening recession in Japan? Or the sanctions against Russia? Or the growing political rift between Germany and France? And how about the utter mess in the Middle East? Come to think of it, how about the devastation of the Philippines, as well? Judging by the stockmarkets, the investors are hardly aware of any of the above. The Global Business Barometer by The Economist and the Financial Times for the fourth quarter of this year is set at thirteen percent, which means that the outlook is improving. It was at eighteen percent for the third quarter (“The Global Business Barometer,” August 23, 2014). The global business confidence over next six months has dropped by twenty-nine percent from the first quarter of this year, but it is still in the positive. How is this possible? Mind you, my only reason for checking the stockmarkets is to get a hunch of things to come. The appearance of the GBB has delighted me for the same reason. I cannot but wonder, though. Can the glorified investors see beyond their noses?