The election lists have appeared in the local newspapers this morning. The campaign is on. Happily, there are only three lists in Motovun: Social Democrats and Greens running together, Istrian Democratic Assembly, which has been in power here for nineteen years already, and Independents. A greater number of lists would only confuse the electorate. Also, there are only two candidates for mayor. One represents the coalition between Social Democrats and Greens, and the other represents the Istrian Democratic Assembly for the third time in a row.

By comparison with previous election years, the Greens and the Independents are new to the voters. But few people in Motovun will be thinking about what any of the parties actually stand for. Their goals and programs will be nearly irrelevant. Instead, everyone will be looking at the names of the people on the three lists, as well as their relative positions on each list—that is, the likelihoods that they would make it into the municipal council. As the municipality is tiny, everyone knows everyone else.

A quick comparison between the election lists shows that the Istrian Democratic Assembly is relying most on tried and tested people from previous administrations. No surprises here. The incumbents are embattled, and their list shows it perfectly clearly. The Independents are completely new to politics in this town, and it will thus take everyone a little while to figure out who is who on the list, as well as why. The coalition between Social Democrats and Greens is somewhere in between, with the exception of the Greens.

The most important next step is to form yet another coalition between the parties opposing the incumbent Istrian Democratic Assembly. According to the Croatian law, the Independents cannot enter coalitions before the elections. However, the law permits post-election coalitions, which can be formed before the elections. Such an agreement, signed in front of invited journalists, would make it clear to the electorate that the incumbent party is most likely to be driven into opposition in the municipal council. This would change the politics of Motovun for the first time in almost two decades. And the outlook is bright.

Addendum (May 5, 2009)

After some deliberation, the Independents decided not to accept the post-election coalition offer from the coalition of Social Democrats and Greens. They say they wish to see what the elections will bring them before reconsidering such a move. This bodes ill, though. The elections will be followed by fierce horse-trading, in which the ruling Istrian Democratic Assembly will have an upper hand. When it comes to horse-trading, they are pros. After years in power, they have much to trade with, too. The way things look at the moment, nothing much will change in Motovun. Thanks to the Independents, I must say. In spite of their claims that they want to change everything about local politics in the town and the surrounding villages, they are most likely to achieve precisely the opposite.