BUBBLE, FROTH: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (January 22, 2008)
In their study of the “generational housing bubble,” Dowell Myers and SungHo Ryu of the University of Southern California predict a long period of transition of the housing market in connection with the retirement of the baby-boom generation, which accounts for a bit less than eighty-million people or a bit more than a quarter of the total American population (“Baby Boom and Bust,” January 19, 2008). The oldest baby-boomers will be celebrating their sixty-fifth birthday in 2011, and the study shows that this is the age when people shift from buyers to sellers of houses. Of course, this is based on historical data pertaining to the behavior of previous generations. Sixty-five was the retirement age in America until recently, but that age has been pushed toward seventy. Besides, the very notion of retirement age is now in question on account of so-called ageism, a form of discrimination. To wit, baby-boomers are liable to keep surprising. Many of them have retired much earlier than previous generations, but most of them are likely to retire much later. The Myers and Ryu’s period of transition is therefore liable to be not only long, but also quite turbulent. The housing bubble may turn into froth.