ON THE GLOBAL DEBT BUBBLE (November 5, 2015)

Global debt is in the news, but only just. Most humans find it too boring by half, and few media wish to bore their clients. At any rate, the debt now amounts to some sixty-trillion dollars. It has been growing by leaps and bounds since the onset of the global financial crisis seven years ago. When compared to global annual output, the picture is even more frightening, for global debt is three times higher than output. Looking at individual countries, there is no end to surprises. For instance, Japan’s debt is four times higher than its annual output. Countries with debt more than three times higher than output include Ireland, Portugal, Belgium, and the Netherlands, all in the European Union. The United Kingdom and the United States are not far behind with frightening debt-to-output ratios. And all these countries keep borrowing as though there is no tomorrow. But the global debt bubble must burst sooner or later, for borrowing at current rates is unsustainable. Add climate change and environmental degradation to the picture, and the future is frightening, indeed. The global economic order is on its hind legs, and the smallest disturbance in the precarious balance can lead to another global financial crisis of unprecedented proportions. When can it be expected? It is anyone’s guess, but we are talking months or years rather than decades. It must strike by, say, 2020 at the latest. Which is perhaps why borrowing proceeds unabated to this day. To wit, many a country must hope that the crisis will be of such proportions that all debt will perforce be forgotten afterwards. A reasonable if brazen assumption, this. Fingers crossed.