Grexit, or the exit of Greece from the eurozone, will mark 2015. And Brexit, or the exit of Britain from the European Union, will mark 2017. The two exits are not closely related, but they still do have one fundamental thing in common: both the monetary and the broader market union have clear if complex rules as to the entry, but no rules whatsoever as to the exit. And this is squarely the Union’s constitutional fault, as it were. It will be interesting to see what the leadership of the Union will do about Grexit, but it will be even more interesting to see what they will do about Brexit. Chances are that utter confusion will reign in both cases, for the leadership in question hardly deserves its name. Actually, the European club is bereft of leadership with the exception of Angela Merkel and few of her closest associates. The rest is not even a club, let alone anything loftier, for there are no clubs without perfectly clear exit rules. Thus the chances that Grexit and Brexit will shake the Union up, and make it into something of substance, are close to nil. What will follow will be amazing to behold—first Eurexit, and then Gerexit. As for the timing of these momentous events, how about 2019 for the former, and 2021 for the latter?

Addendum (August 30, 2016)

Well, well. First of all, Grexit has not happened yet, but Greece is still on the very edge of the European Union. So far, Greece’s problems have been postponed, but only by a few years. More important, Brexit took place in 2016 rather than 2017, as expected. Britain will take a while to exit the Union for true, but the referendum is squarely behind us already. Sooner or later, Frexit and Nedexit are in the cards. Petty bourgeoisies of both France and the Netherlands are eager to leave the Union as soon as possible. And so is the petty bourgeoisie of good old Germany. By now, the flagship of the Union has sprung a powerful party bent on Gerexit, as well. Angela Merkel is rapidly losing her power base mainly because of her bewildering stand regarding immigrants, and she is likely to be gone from the political scene in just a few years. So, when will the vaunted Union break apart at last? Bereft of leadership, it will take a decade at most. In the meanwhile, the monetary union will break up, as well. And all this will happen precisely at the time when Europe will come under increasing pressure from Asian and African immigrants, whose staggering numbers will keep growing for many a decade. Slowly but surely, the entire subcontinent will become no man’s land.