Zoran Skala, a colleague from the Croatian Climate Change Panel, sent me today an article by a certain Paul Gilding, an independent advisor on sustainability from the States, with an interesting title: “The Year the Dam of Denial Breaks on Climate Change” (www.paulgilding.com). “Maybe the man is right…,” commented Zoran tersely. Thus I read the article at once. As the argument goes, the market will finally wake up to the economic opportunity offered by climate change. This will unlock government policy and public opinion. So far, many people have lived in denial. As climate change became more dramatic, the denial turned more entrenched. But the end of this perverse cycle is finally within sight.

It is not difficult to agree with Gilding that science has become largely irrelevant in this connection. If the scientific evidence were going to change things, it would have done this by now. Thus we need to look for the shift in the human response, which points to economics and politics. Here he points at several big changes: the climate deal between the States and China, the collapse of oil prices, and the continual fall in prices of solar and other renewable energy systems. Big business cannot but notice these shifts, and it comes with considerable political clout. To wit, big business can push governments, too.

So, it is big business that will start the ball rolling according to Gilding. The historical turning point is nigh and the cracks in the dam of denial are already showing. This sounds plausible enough, no doubt. Still, he fails to convince that 2015 is the year that will be remembered as the pivotal one. As I was reading the article, I was looking for a mention of Paris climate talks, but I found none. Gilding’s perspective is American to boot. That is, parochial. Although it is hard to argue with him that the market opportunity for sustainable development may be crucial to the demise of the dam of denial, its timing remains open to question. It is here that the Paris event may well have a marked effect across the world. Willy-nilly, governments will have to commit themselves to action in Paris. There will be much publicity to the event. Big business cannot but take notice, and this is where Gilding may turn out to have been right in his prophecy.