A week from today, Croatians will decide in a referendum whether or not to join the European Union, which has already decided on the accession date for the country less than eighteen months from now. Which way will the referendum go, though? Chances are that the supporters of the Union will win, but its detractors will be far from few. Or docile. And they will keep grumbling about the referendum for years. But which way will my vote go? I will not vote one way or the other, of course. As I promised the president of Croatia last year, I will vote never again in this country (“My Best Wishes: A Letter to Croatian President Ivo Josipović,” April 15, 2011). And I keep my promises. But my best wishes still hold. This country needs as many wellwishers as it can get, as does the troubled Union. The way things look at the moment, Croatia may well be the last country ever to join it. The referenda already on the horizon will surely go the other way.

Addendum I (January 22, 2012)

Some of the Croatian enthusiasts of the European Union have billed today’s referendum as the most important decision ever faced by the Croatian people, but the media report a weak response of the electorate. Starting at seven o’clock in the morning and ending at seven in the evening, the exercise has not attracted too many people so far. By eleven o’clock only some eleven percent of the electorate cast their vote. And only a third of the electorate did so by four o’clock. However, the Union aficionados appear to be in a comfortable lead. The results will be out by tomorrow noon at the latest, but it is unlikely that more than a half of the electorate will have taken part in the referendum. The most important decision ever taken by the Croatian people, my ass.

Addendum II (January 23, 2012)

The referendum results are out by now. Surprisingly, full two-thirds of Croatian voters went for the membership in the European Union. All the recent pre-referendum polls suggested that no more than sixty percent of the electorate was for the Union. However, only a bit more than forty percent of the electorate participated in the referendum. It seems that those that were opposed to Croatia’s membership had figured out the outcome ahead of time and thus refrained from voting. Chances are that they will remain awkward customers in the years to come.

Addendum III (March 21, 2012)

Looking back at the referendum, as well as the intervening period of almost exactly two months, I have a feeling that few Croatians care about the accession to the European Union at this stage. On the one hand, it has long been taken for granted. There are no other viable options, anyhow. On the other, people I talk to understand perfectly well that the vaunted freedom of movement in the Union is about capital, goods, and services rather than people. Only the movers and shakers will get anything out of it. Indeed, the politicians seem to be most enthusiastic about the upcoming accession. Most likely the greatest beneficiaries of accession, they brag about it often enough, but they also seem to be preparing themselves for so many cushy jobs in the Union’s vast chicken coop. At any rate, the majority of Croatians have done all that is expected of them. They voted for the Union, that is. Their job accomplished with aplomb, they can rest in peace now.