OUTMODED DEFINITIONS OF GROWTH AND DECLINE (June 1, 2012)
According to the leading Croatian newspapers, the prime minister “admitted” today that the country was in recession. “Officially,” that is. Few people are surprised, of course. The official definition of recession, two successive quarters of decline in output, is becoming an embarrassment not only in Croatia, but across the so-called developed world, as well. By the same standard, many European countries are also in recession at this juncture. With staggering long-term unemployment even in America, though, the definition needs looking into. And soon. Unfortunately, this would require an economist of John Maynard Keynes’ stature, but that is no less than wishful thinking. Economists of his stature are nowhere to be found nowadays. In short, we will be stuck with outmoded definitions of growth and decline for many years to come. Which suits nimble politicians quite fine, it goes without saying. As for depression, it will also take many more years to acknowledge it as such. In the meanwhile, there will be learned talk of recession only, together with ludicrous adjectives, such as double-dip, triple-dip, and so on. Quadruple-dip would still do, I suppose. Pity a profession that struggles with basic terminology less than a century after the last acknowledged depression.