HOW MANY RECESSIONS IN A ROW SPELL DEPRESSION? (October 9, 2012)
A new report of the International Monetary Fund is in the news today. Global recession threatens anew, the report warns. The outlook for Europe is especially dim, as new recessions threaten many countries. Dreadful as it is, though, the report is not dreadful enough. There is one word missing throughout: depression. Unemployment figures alone would suggest it, as many countries have never pulled out of recession, except by some narrow technical definition. That definition needs to change, for it is confusing all and sundry. Europe has long been in depression. And so has America. The recent and most celebrated drop in the unemployment rate is puny, to say the least. It still hovers just below eight percent, which is a staggering figure given its persistence. Of course, the Spanish unemployment rate of twenty-five percent beats it by a wide margin, but it nonetheless smacks of depression after so many years in a row. Returning to the technical definition of recession, which involves two successive quarters of falling output, it now demands serious rethinking. After many recessions so narrowly defined, careful redefinition is surely required. For instance, how many recessions in a row spell depression? Indeed, where are economists when one needs them?