DIVINE CERTAINTY (September 3, 2012)

Uncertainty is a pretty uncertain concept, to put it mildly. To wit, it is defined differently in different fields of science. In some fields, the probabilities of different outcomes are beyond estimation under uncertainty. In others, even the outcomes themselves cannot be enumerated. But there is one feature of uncertainty that is beyond uncertainty. As it grows, it feeds on itself. The greater the uncertainty, the faster it grows. Indeed, uncertainty feeds on uncertainty. And how. Returning to science, as it were, the probabilities are increasingly inestimable. Even worse, the number of possible outcomes grows, as well. At its worst, uncertainty becomes certainty. Everything becomes possible. And with the same probability. Nothing is beyond the pale any longer. This is precisely where we are at the moment, too. Uncertainty is growing at an unprecedented pace. Actually, it is exploding in front of our faces. It is turning into divine certainty, no less.

Addendum (December 11, 2016)

Having come across this piece entirely by chance, I thought of Donald Trump at once. Now that he is the president-elect of the United States, uncertainty is at a trot. Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders are rubbing their hands already. And so are Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson. Uncertainty mongers all, they relish their moment in history. Soon enough, uncertainty will be at a gallop. In a decade or at most two, divine certainty will reign across the globe. Welcome to the Twenty-First Century! By its end, surprise will go the way of the dodo. Surprise, what surprise?