THE HOUSING BUBBLE: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (November 28, 2011)

As you report, the global housing bubble appears to be only halfway through (“House of Horrors, Part 2,” November 26, 2011). In particular, house prices tumbled by thirty-four percent in America from their peak in 2006; they plunged by forty-five percent in Ireland from their peak in 2007; but they have dropped only about ten percent in Britain and Italy from their peak in 2007, as well. Several other countries are similar to Britain and Italy in this regard. Therefore, you expect that house prices in these countries will drop further. Indeed. Interestingly, two years ago you reported the work of two economists of renown, Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, who looked into fourteen “severe” banking crises to date (”Drastic Times,” January 10, 2009). According to their peak-to-trough guidelines for cumulative changes applied to the present crisis, house prices would drop by about a third over five years. By this reckoning, America is on target. This would be in broad support of your own expectations, as well. Apparently, the housing bubble has about a year to go in a number of other of countries.