THE END OF THE EURO: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (July 19, 2011)
The euro crisis has traveled from Greece to Ireland to Portugal to Greece to Italy. As you point out in your main leader, the last stage is putting the single currency itself at risk for Italy is the third-largest economy in the euro zone (“On the Edge,” July 16, 2011). So far, the bigwigs in Brussels, Frankfurt, and Berlin have failed to make a single move that could stem the crisis. As you argue, muddling through must be replaced by a comprehensive strategy based on three components: debt reduction for insolvent countries, recapitalization of banks that would suffer from the restructuring, and building of a firewall between the insolvent countries and the rest of the euro zone. The end of the euro is the only alternative. It is hard to disagree with any of this. However, it is even harder not to be annoyed by your advice without any assessment of the likelihood that it will be followed. Judging from past performance, the bigwigs in Brussels, Frankfurt, and Berlin will keep muddling through. The comprehensive strategy you advocate is nothing but a flight of fancy. To wit, it is time to announce the end of the euro.