SPINNING PLATES: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (January 3, 2011)
I am with you when it comes to central banks spinning plates on top of wobbling poles and dashing about to avoid disaster (“In a Spin,” January 1, 2011). This is good entertainment when crockery is involved, but bad monetary policy. Some banks, as well as some countries, should be allowed to crash. It is easier to pick up the pieces than keep the plates spinning. The most troubling aspect of the unfolding variety show is that there are too many central banks spinning plates and dashing hither and thither. Discoordinated, they are bound to crash into each other. And the smashing spectacle is bound to follow. If the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank cannot spin plates in concert, what can be expected by central banks across the globe, and especially in the emerging economies? Threatened by inflation and market bubbles, as well as bereft of effective capital controls, these countries cannot raise interest rates for fear of speculative money flows from deflation-threatened rich countries with near-zero interest rates. As you argue, a bearish perspective on the market makes a lot of sense in 2011.