SHORTING FOR BULLS: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (October 12, 2011)
It is interesting to read that betting against China is in vogue, especially now that a slowdown in the rich world is likely to cripple the demand for Chinese exports (“Panda Bears,” October 8, 2011). Shorting, or borrowing stocks or other financial assets in the hope that they will lose value by the time they become due, is illegal in China, so Hong Kong has become a shorting haven. Bears love it. As you report, pessimists have focused on industries that would be hardest hit, such as property and construction. In particular, Anhui Conch Cement, China’s largest cement manufacturer, is most commonly shorted in Hong Kong these days. In the long enough run, though, that is a safe bet no matter how China is affected by the slowdown in the rich world. Property and construction do well only in early stages of economic development, anyway. In China’s case, where economic development is faster than ever before, that stage cannot last very long. In short, shorting of these industries is not meaningful only for bears, as you assume, but also for clever bulls.