RUSSIAN GAS, AGAIN: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (June 27, 2011)
In a few days, Poland will take over the rotating presidency of the European Union from Hungary. This is a “maturity test,” as you cite Janos Martonyi, Hungary’s foreign minister (“Presidential Ambitions,” June 25, 2011). And Poland may well pass it with distinction. Uniquely in the Union, it has managed to eschew recession in the global financial crisis. The presidency is thus of quite some interest. As you suggest, one area to watch is European security, including the Union’s dependence on Russian gas. This is where Poland is likely to have a rather different position than Germany, which prefers to negotiate with Russians unilaterally. Given that much of the ex-Soviet bloc depends on Russian gas even more than the rest of the Union, this is a distinct Eastern European issue, as well. Although six months is not a very long period, Poland will have a distinct opportunity to redefine Europe’s geopolitical stand with respect to energy. Lest the opportunity is squandered, this is where the best and the brightest in the Union’s administration now need to set their sights, too.