PUTIN CONTEXT: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (November 19, 2011)

Your article about Russia’s future focuses on Vladimir Putin, as it doubtless should (“Putin His Place,” November 19, 2011). Poised for twelve more years at the helm, much depends on him and him alone, for the country is bereft of alternatives. As you argue, his support is hefty but fragile. Whether or not it crumbles depends on the state of the economy, which is stagnant at present. “With its big cash reserves and low debt,” you argue, “Russia may find that economic problems take time to hit home.” Of course, this will depend largely on the price of oil and gas. “But when they do,” you conclude, “their effect is likely to be unusually severe—just as the end of the Soviet Union.” True, but there are two sides to the price of all the good things that Russia supplies. Namely, much of its future will depend on the demand for oil and gas, as well as the state of the world economy. The depression that currently stalks Europe and the United States, as well as its effect on the emerging economies, must be taken into account when Russia’s future is discussed. Both global depression and economic recovery may make Putin look good at home—in the former case by comparison, and in the latter by domestic growth propelled by rising prices of oil and gas.