KIM JONG IL’S LAST CHANCE: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (August 30, 2011)

Kim Jong Il of North Korea has just met with Dmitry Medvedev of Russia to discuss a pipeline carrying natural gas between Siberia and the two Koreas, as well as connecting the three countries by rail (“A China Hedge?” August 27, 2011). As you suggest, North Korea’s dictator may be hedging against excessive reliance on China. The plan does not convince you, though. In your view, the political risk is too high for it to be credible. But North Korea is running out of tricks. All things considered, the Russian gambit makes quite a bit of sense, especially because Russia is also a useful supplier of free grain, as you point out. A quick look at the map of the region shows that North Korea shares a shred of a border with Russia southeast of Vladivostok. This may well be Kim Jong Il’s last chance, for the rest of the country’s border is shared with China, which also covets Russian natural gas and much more beside. And a speedy pipeline would be quite a boon not only for the two Koreas, but for Japan further south, as well. So, trust the old trickster this time at least. There is much at stake across the board.