KEYNES VERSUS FRIEDMAN: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (August 1, 2011)
“Governments in the rich world have painted themselves into a corner,” you argue in connection with a long-run policy to avoid recession at all costs (“Running Out of Options,” July 30, 2011). And monetary policy has been their favorite weapon of choice, you add. Slashing interest rates at the smallest sign of trouble has resulted in a series of asset bubbles, the last one of which burst in 2008. Monetary policy has been the weapon of choice after the crisis, as well. But governments are running out of options with their favorite tools. Rising debt to provide a stimulus is not an option, and slashing it is hardly an option, either, for it may lead to depression. Japan-like doldrums lurk in any case. All this is hard to disagree with. The only point where a few more words are surely needed is the time frame of the present troubles. Namely, you argue that the monetary policy conundrum has started some twenty-five years ago. However, it can be argued that it has started with Ronald Regan and Margaret Thatcher almost exactly thirty years ago. This is when Milton Friedman eclipsed John Maynard Keynes in economic policy. It is time for turning things around. But the doldrums cannot be removed before their time. No lessons in economic policy come cheap, and Japan is the best witness.