IRAN’S NUCLEAR DREAMS: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (November 16, 2011)

Now that there is no doubt left about Iran’s nuclear bomb in the making, Israel’s pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is only a question of weeks or maybe months (“That’s Right, Iceman, I’m Dangerous,” November 12, 2011). Israel is sure to get America’s help if anything goes wrong with the strike. Given that Syria is on the brink of civil war, it is unlikely to join the conflict on Iran’s side. And this is where the known knowns rapidly evaporate. But the known unknowns are many. How will Turkey and Iraq behave? More important, what will Russia do? Still, unknown unknowns are the most perplexing. How will Muslim countries close and far behave? Perhaps most important, what will China do? One way or another, a much wider conflict may easily come out of Iran’s nuclear dreams. Although it is a bit premature to consider the possibility of another world war, it is hard to imagine who would benefit from the conflict in the Middle East. That is the greatest puzzle of Iran’s gambit from the very start.