AFTER FUKUSHIMA: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (March 30, 2011)

Your briefing on nuclear power is a sobering read (“When the Steam Clears,” March 26, 2011). The four-hundred and forty-three nuclear reactors in operation today produce about fourteen percent of the world’s electricity. With two-hundred and twenty reactors under construction or planned, this figure will not change much because the median age of operational reactors is around twenty-seven years and a typical design life is forty years. After Fukushima, the share of nuclear power in the total may even shrink as older reactors are taken out of production faster than hitherto and new ones get stalled. The rub is that such a trend will increase the emission of carbon dioxide, and thus contribute to climate change. Although nuclear reactors carry systemic risks, as witnessed by the recent disaster, they have plenty to recommend them in terms of environmental protection. Which way will the world go? The only sensible direction would be the development of safer reactors. And the countries to provide the necessary technology would be America, France, and Japan with the largest number of operational reactors, as well as Russia, China, India, and South Korea with the largest number of reactors under construction or in the process of planning. As public opinion has now shifted away from nuclear power, new technologies would need to be rather credible, as well. This is a tall order, of course. Therefore, chances are that nuclear power will shift to the emerging economies, where public opinion will be less of an impediment. As a consequence, they will also reduce their carbon-dioxide emissions, which will plague the developed countries. A nice little paradox, this.