A GUESSING GAME (October 5, 2011)

After many a dreadful day, the stockmarkets are up today. The International Monetary Fund has offered to buy the eurozone’s sovereign debt, as all the financial media are blaring at the moment. Where the European Union’s bailout fund is inadequate according to the embattled investors, the world’s bailout fund is apparently up to par. Really? There are two reasons to be dubious about such a proposition. To begin with, no-one can pin down the eurozone’s exposure. By now, Greece is only a small part of the problem. More important, not even the entire world is likely to have pockets deep enough for the awesome task. This is obvious enough, but the stockmarkets are still up. For how long? That is anyone’s guess, but it will take the investors a day or two to come to their senses. That is in their nature, anyhow. It is a guessing game and nothing but a guessing game. And especially when it comes to big issues, such as the eurozone’s debt. But it is still depressing to witness the investors’ unguarded enthusiasm, no matter how short-lived it may turn out to be. Stockmarkets are notoriously poor judges of things to come. The rub is that no better judges are available, either.