THE UNIVERSITY DOLDRUMS (February 13, 2014)

According to The New York Times today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ recent ranking of top twenty fastest-growing occupations through 2022 shows that only seven of them require higher education. These include interpreters, information security analysis, and health care professionals. Of the thirteen remaining occupations that do not require a university degree most are in health care and building trades. The newspaper thus concludes that this offers a challenge to policy makers and business leaders because most new jobs in the foreseeable future are likely to be lower-wage ones. Interestingly, this challenge is not extended to university administrators. But what are they to do now that higher education pays ever less? Should they lower tuitions and wages? Or should they cut entire programs and lower the enrollment? With the exception of the top ten American universities, these are the choices that university administrators will have to consider pretty soon. One way or another, though, the number and/or size of universities will have to shrink to adjust to the expected shrinkage in the demand for university education. The university administrators will neglect the challenge at their peril. The university doldrums may last well past 2022.