The readers of the Financial Times are regaled today by a guest post on one of the newspaper’s blogs concerning the rest of the Twenty-First Century. Dramatically, it comes in four acts. Written by two Brazilians from Fundação Dom Cabral in Nova Lima, Brazil, the forecast is based on two sorts of cycles: hegemonic cycles of a hundred to one-hundred and forty years, and Kondratiev cycles of fifty to sixty years. Hegemonic cycles have to do with leading global economies and Kondratiev cycles with technological change, which moves from the military into commercial domains.

Act I concerns the crisis of 2020s. Increasing energy and food prices will lead to increasing cultural and military conflicts. Act II envisages a technological revolution of 2040s. The main candidates are robotics and artificial intelligence; genetics and biotechnology; and green energy and space technology. Act III ushers world wars of 2070s and 2080s. This will be a chaotic period leading to transition in world hegemony. Act IV concerns the new hegemony and a new beginning for the world economy in 2090s and the first few years of the Twenty-Second Century. The main candidates are the United States of Europe; United States of America merged with Mexico; China and its colonies; India and its colonies; and Brazil and its colonies.

“This prediction is a long shot,” conclude the Brazilian authors. “In forecasting, to raise hypotheses, possibilities, and questions is more important than precision.” Indeed. There are two more things needed in forecasting, though: knowledge and imagination. As for knowledge, the Brazilian forecast fails to mention the climate change that is already upon us. If at all, it appears only in terms of increasing food prices. Perhaps more important, the new hegemony does not envisage a drastic drop in human population due to both climate change and world wars. Such a drop would inevitably lead to the collapse of the world economy and reappearance of continental economies.

Regarding imagination, the Brazilian forecast is pretty barren. Even neglecting climate change, the period of world wars is unimaginable without a significant change in the socio-economic order facing the world. The drastic drop in human population is likely to lead to a return to feudalism rather than any sort of capitalism. And it is likely to lead to a return to slavery on some continents, most notably Africa, and perhaps even South America. The beginning of the Twenty-Second Century is thus unlikely to be a rosy period depicted in the Act IV of the Brazilian forecast. Far from it. At best, it will usher a repeat of the dark age following the collapse of Rome. And this is where imagination is crucial in forecasting.