First the oil prices tumbled causing quite a bit of unrest, and especially in Russia. And then the ruble tumbled, causing quite a bit of unrest outside Russia, as well. The first signs of glee in the so-called west were quickly replaced by real concern. What will Putin do? Many now fear that the likely turmoil in Russia will eventually lead to flexing of muscles abroad. This would deflect domestic problems in predictable ways. The first thing Putin is thus likely to do is to blame the fall of the ruble on America and Europe. As I write, he is figuring out the stockmarket plot concocted by Russia’s foes. With a little bit of help from his closest associates, he will make it plausible enough. Russia is under attack. The ruble is its very lifeblood. Strong remedies are needed. As well as a firm stand at home. Law and order must be maintained come what may. And so on. As for Russia’s neighbors that could be facing trouble, take your pick. Eastern Europe comes first. It is followed by the Middle East. Countries like Georgia and Azerbaijan come next. Luckily for Kazakhstan and Mongolia, they border on China, a great friend as of late. In the meanwhile, the only hope is that the ruble will right itself pretty soon. Or else.

Addendum (December 18, 2014)

After days of silence, Putin spoke to the nation today. According to the media, he struck an uncompromising stance over the crisis gripping Russia. He accused America and Europe of trying to undermine his nation and blaming external factors for the ruble’s precipitous fall. Comparing Russia to a bear, he said that its enemies will always try to chain it. “As soon as they chain it,” he continued, “they’ll rip out its teeth and claws.” As for the best response, he had nothing to offer. “Under the most negative external economic scenario,” he declared, “this situation can last two years at most.” This much the country can withstand. “If the situation is very bad,” he concluded, “we will have to change our plans, cut some things.” So much from Putin today. Watch out for external factors, though.