THE BEGINNING OF THE END (July 8, 2014)
The world population is expected to reach about ten-billion around the middle of this century, and it is expected to decline afterwards. This forecast has to do with many things, but chief among them is the assumption that there will be no major changes in the world economy. I am not likely to witness the moment when the record population will be reached, but I wonder whether it will ever be reached. The assumption of no major changes is questionable at best. To begin with, climate change will have a major effect on the world economy, and thus on the world population. On top of this, climate change is likely to trigger major wars, if not World War III itself. The combined effect of these two changes on the world population will be appreciable. Am I likely to witness such calamities, though? I would say so. By the time I reach ninety, which will be in twenty-two years, the world will be rather different than it is today. The world population will have peaked by then, but only around eight-billion. And I feel quite lucky that both of my parents had died at the age of ninety. It is a sort of guarantee I will witness only the beginning of the end. The rest of the end is better skipped, anyway. Besides, it may well stretch over the rest of the century or even longer.