PUTIN’S PLANS (November 24, 2014)
Vladimir Putin’s plans for the future are in the news. In an interview with the Russian state news agency, he said that he did not want to rule Russia for life, but that he might run for another six-year term in 2018. Staying in office beyond 2024 would be detrimental for the country, he said. And it would be unconstitutional, of course. As he has ruled Russia either as president or prime minister since 2000, this means that he is quite likely to remain in power for twenty-five years at least. Born in 1952, he would be seventy-two at the end of his last presidential term. He said that it was too early to erect monuments to himself, but that local officials who wanted to name streets after him did so out of best intentions. The rest of the interview concerned the relations between Russia and the so-called west, but his remarks about his plans for the future strike me as most interesting. Although it may be true that he does not plan to rule Russia for life, I would be willing to bet that he plans to rule the country beyond 2024. In his own mind, he will be too young for retirement ten years from now. Another six-year swap with Dmitry Medvedev might be too much even for Russians, but some other trick might work. And the best trick I can imagine at present is a referendum in which Putin would be begged by the Russians to stay at the helm of the country for another two terms in spite of the constitution. By 2036, when he will be eighty-four, he might well be ready to retire at last.