PUTIN’S BET (March 27, 2014)
One more time, American and European leaders talk while Putin is amassing soldiers and arms on Ukraine’s border. Images of Russian tanks transported by trains are all over the World Wide Web. Eastern and Southern Ukraine are in question, as is Moldova that borders on Romania. Now that Crimea is in Russian hands, the whole operation is much easier than ever before. But the main news in the western press today is that the International Monetary Fund has secured some money to boost Kiev and stabilize the Ukrainian economy. This appears to be the main outcome of the meeting of leaders from America, Canada, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and Japan several days ago. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, is shrugging off the exclusion of his country from the meeting. And Putin is dead quiet. What can be expected next? The first step will be a widespread uprising of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, as well as in Moldova. The second step will be Russian military assistance of the embattled brethren seeking reunification with motherland. And what will the west do? They will boost Kiev and stabilize what remains of the Ukrainian economy with more money from the International Monetary Fund. War with Russia is out of the question, of course. Which has been Putin’s bet from the very start.