EUROZONE’S DOLDRUMS (August 14, 2014)
Eurozone’s doldrums are in the news. The second quarter data is a surprise to many. Italy is in recession, Germany suffers a contraction, and France stagnates. Although the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain have grown about half a percent, the lousy performance of the three big countries is worrying. All in all, the eurozone has grown at zero percent. The euro is expected to fall. Therefore, all eyes are on the European Central Bank. And that is the main problem with the eurozone, it goes without saying. Monetary policy can do only so much. In the absence of fiscal policy for the eighteen countries’ monetary union, monetary policy is pretty limited in scope. However, fiscal policy is a pipedream at this juncture. The European Union is still beyond definition twenty-two years after Maastricht. It is not even a club, let alone anything approaching a confederation. What is more, the dreadful performance of the eurozone is likely to lead to further weakening of the Union. Another recession would bring it to its knees. How likely is another recession, though? Given the ravages of sanctions against Russia, and given the cold months ahead, several upsetting quarters in a row are quite likely. And my heart goes to Mario Draghi, the man behind the vaunted monetary policy. Much rests on his poor shoulders.