EL NIÑO FOR BEGINNERS (June 11, 2014)

This year’s El Niño is in the news. The global weather phenomenon centered on the Pacific has a ninety percent chance of striking soon, according to latest forecasts. El Niño begins as a giant pool of warm water swelling in the eastern tropical Pacific. It sets off a chain reaction of weather events around the world, some of which can be quite devastating. India is expected to be the first to be affected with weaker monsoon rains, which will undermine the nation’s fragile food supply. Australia and South America come next. They will be affected through droughts and collapsing fisheries. Northern Europe will be affected by a harsher winter, whereas Southern Europe will have a milder one. And so on, and so forth. Having read quite a bit about El Niño events in the past, though, I am none the wiser. The question uppermost in my mind is the connection between this particular phenomenon and climate change, but this is precisely where the weather scientists are most confused. As well as at odds with each other. In short, the coming El Niño is hardly worth wondering about. It is anyone’s guess, that is. If there is anything to learn about the phenomenon, it will come from our collective experience. The scientists can go to hell. They are pretty useless precisely when they are most needed.