“THE BIOLOGY OF RISK” (June 8, 2014)
Thus The New York Times today. “The Fed has contributed to bubbles by misunderstanding our nature,” elaborates the newspaper. “Too much certainty, we go too far. With too little, we freeze.” I skipped the article, but I almost laughed at the title and the byline when I remembered Mario Draghi’s latest trick—negative interest rates. Even Ben Bernanke would be jealous of him at this point. On a bit more serious note, the misunderstanding of our nature goes well beyond the central banks of this world. In fact, it goes straight to the heart of economics, which is bereft of psychology and sociology, let alone biology. In spite of the recent Nobel prize in economics that went to Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist of renown who has worked for decades on economic problems together with Amos Tversky, his lifelong partner who died before the prize, the bulk of the economics profession is innocent of our nature. The last financial crisis should never be forgotten in this context, for economists missed it entirely until it was too late. As for the future, it is unwise to allow economists to lead central banks. Professions concerned with human nature should take their place, instead.