“MARKETS WILL SHRUG OFF UKRAINE, UNFORTUNATELY” (February 20, 2014)
Thus The Wall Street Journal today. “Ukraine seems to be rolling inexorably to all-out civil war,” elaborates the newspaper. “This isn’t likely to matter much to the global markets. Unfortunately.” I agree with this assessment. Unfortunately. As the article point out, correctly, Ukraine’s economy is small—just a bit bigger than Alabama’s, of all American states. As a consequence, both its debt and equity are also small. If fought on ethnic grounds, the civil war is likely to mirror the Yugoslav civil war in the early Nineties. The response from both Europe and America is therefore bound to be slow and modest at best. Unfortunately. The only thing that investors will learn from the turmoil in Ukraine is that emerging markets can be treacherous. So much for global capitalism at its very height. Unfortunately.