“AN ASTONISHING RECORD OF COMPLETE FAILURE” (June 1, 2014)
Thus the Financial Times today. “In 2008,” the newspaper explains, “the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” Much of the article is about the work of an economist from the International Monetary Fund who has surveyed economic forecasts over the years. He has two conclusions. First, the forecasts are all the same. Second, they are all wrong. In short, the predictive record of economists is outright terrible. His conclusions are very to my liking, though. Economics is a failed science, as are many others. Most important, forget about economic forecasts. They are for the birds. And this is the verdict for all sciences under the sun. Forget about it. Stupidity is an overwhelming characteristic of all humans, scientists included. But scientists are more dangerous than many others. Their advice is often heeded much more assiduously than that of plumbers and builders. Forget about it, once again. Human stupidity is pervasive. It cuts across all races, religions, and professions. But watch for the scientists, if economists deserve such a distinction. They are the pits.