SEA-LEVEL RISE FOR BEGINNERS: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (March 17, 2009)
It is disturbing to read that four environmental experts had recently announced at a scientific conference in Copenhagen that “sea levels appear to be rising twice as rapidly as had been forecast by the United Nations just two years ago” (“A Sinking Feeling,” March 14, 2009). In particular, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change convened by the UN predicted in 2007 that sea levels would rise by between eighteen to fifty-nine centimeters by 2100, whereas new findings predict that the rise in this period would be between fifty and a hundred centimeters. But it is amusing to read your explanation of these findings: “The reason for the rapid change in the predicted rise in sea levels is a rapid increase in the information available.” By this reckoning, the amount of information must have doubled, too. What is more, we can now use the same law to predict further rise in sea levels: if the amount of information doubles again in the next two years, the predicted rise in sea levels will also double. Neat, this.