In a guest article about the economic crisis, Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, says that policymakers should focus on reducing uncertainty (“(Nearly) Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself,” January 13, 2009). Sounds promising, as uncertainty feeds uncertainty, which feeds economic paralysis all around. But how are the policymakers to do this? Wield a magic wand, which Blanchard mentions in the first paragraph? With all due respect, for Blanchard is a fine economist, much of the task is actually in the hands of economists. They should focus on reducing uncertainty by offering plausible guidelines on the effect of crises like this one. The first step in this direction was recently taken by two economists of renown, Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, who looked into fourteen “severe” banking crises to date, and whose work you recently reviewed (“Drastic Times,” January 10, 2009). In an earlier letter, I simplified their peak-to-trough guidelines thus: “house prices will drop by a third over five years; equity prices will drop by a half over three years; unemployment will jump by a tenth over five years; and total output per person will drop by a tenth over two years” (“Peak-to-Trough Guidelines: A Letter to The Economist, January 12, 2009). With credible information of this ilk, fortified by further research by other economists, policymakers would indeed have a chance of reducing uncertainty.