PROPERTY BOOMS AND BUSTS: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (October 6, 2009)

Your briefing on unrepentant bears among stockmarket commentators is a joy to read, but the pessimism of George Magnus, an economic adviser at UBS, and Albert Edwards, an investment-bank strategist at Société Générale, strikes a particular chord with me (“The End is Nigh (Again),” October 3, 2009). As Magnus emphasizes, household balance-sheet problems tend to last. They are often linked to property booms and busts, which take years to play out. And as Edwards surmises, the outcome will be a reverse of the Nineties’ boom, when rising property prices boosted consumer confidence and spending. Now that these prices have dropped, consumers will increase their savings and reduce consumption. I very much agree. The second or third mortgages of yesteryear will now be replaced with so many saving funds that will ensure the stability of the household balance-sheet in the long run. In fact, excess property accumulated in the Nineties will now be perceived as saving funds waiting to be drawn on for specific purposes.  The excess fat will thus take years to work off.