COPENHAGEN, COPENHAGEN: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (September 22, 2009)
“As December’s Copenhagen summit on climate change draws near,” you write, “poor countries are expressing alarm at the slow pace of negotiations to replace the Kyoto protocol” (“A Bad Climate for Development,” September 19, 2009). And alarmed they should certainly be, for climate change does far more damage to them than to rich countries. Agriculture and tourism, the poor countries’ main economic activities, suffer from climate change much more than services and manufacturing, for instance. The number of people affected by climate-related disasters in poor countries is not only growing, but it is growing at an increasing rate. Moreover, this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Poor countries thus want large amounts of financial aid from rich countries, and they will eventually get it one way or another. For climate change is gathering pace, too. It is surprising scientists ever anew, and it is ever less likely that anything can be done about it any longer. No matter what is ultimately agreed in Copenhagen, climate-related disasters will demand huge amounts of direct aid when and where they strike. And they will strike increasingly often. Refugee camps will grow into cities requiring regular supply of water, food, and medicaments. Chances are that most of the poor countries will be on a permanent dole in a decade or two. By and by, the only way to ensure that the affected population does not start to move toward rich countries will be, as it were, military aid.