CHINA’S ENGINE OF GROWTH: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (April 21, 2009)
It is good to read that China’s economy is beginning to recover as the giant fiscal stimulus is starting to work (“Bamboo Shoots of Recovery,” April 18, 2009). China’s recovery will help the recovery of the rest of the world. But it is interesting to note that construction is playing a key rôle in all this. Railway investment has tripled over the past year, and a major part of it is in construction. Housing sales are up by a third since last year, signaling housing construction upturn soon. About half of the stimulus is on public infrastructure, which involves massive participation of the construction sector. It is thus a bit surprising to read your conclusion: “the biggest task for China is to find a new engine of growth.” Given that it is a poor country, there is much more to build there before the return on fixed investment starts declining. Many more housing units, factories, roads, and bridges are needed in the meanwhile. To wit, China has found its engine of growth, and it is managing it remarkably well. A new one will be needed in about a decade, by which time the world economic crisis will most likely be over.