BARRING SURPRISES (May 7, 2009)

There are ten days to go till local elections. Barring surprises in Motovun, which are not very likely at this stage, it is possible to venture a guess at the results. Although I am quite new to this game, I reckon the Istrian Democratic Assembly will get five or six posts on the municipal council, the coalition between Social Democrats and Greens will get four or five, and the Independents will get three or four posts. Four years ago the Istrian Democratic Assembly got nine and Social democrats got four out of thirteen posts. The former is in trouble at this juncture, but the Independents will get most of the troubled posts, while Social Democrats together with Greens may make only a small headway with respect to the previous elections. Now, this yields three possible post arrangements between the three election lists: five-four-four, five-five-three, and six-four-three. I would bet for the first arrangement as the most likely, the remaining two being about equally likely in my mind. Clearly, the municipal council will be very much divided between the three parties, and a great deal will depend on possible post-election coalitions between them. However, it is not very likely that the Independents will side with the Istrian Democratic Assembly, whose bungling brought them into the political game in the first place. They will either attempt remaining independent, which will not be easy on account of their inexperience, or they will side with the coalition between Social Democrats and Greens. One way or another, it is pretty certain that the next four years will be far from boring in Motovun.