A WW-SHAPED RECOVERY: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (August 25, 2009)
The way you aptly put it, the debate about the recovery of the world economy now centers around three scenarios (“U, V, or W for Recovery,” August 22, 2009). A V-shaped recovery would be vigorous, a U-shaped one would be feebler and flatter, and a W-shaped one would involve yet another dip before a full recovery. The first two scenarios are optimistic. Call me an arch-pessimist, but I would argue for a WW-shaped recovery. To tell you the truth, it is the arch-optimists, who argue for a V-shaped recovery, that worry me most. Having learned not an iota from this economic crisis, they are likely to repeat their mistakes. Over and over again. In my estimation, it would take three more dips to get rid of them all.