GLOBAL RECESSION: A LETTER TO THE ECONOMIST (November 20, 2007)
Looking from America, where I took my first course in macroeconomics in the early Seventies, the rest of the world was puny. Looking from the rest of the world, America was humongous. In your main leader you argue that things are rather different now (“America’s Vulnerable Economy,” November 17, 2007). The rest of the world has roughly doubled from the vantage point of America, and America has shrunk to about a half of what it used to be from the vantage point of the rest of the world. Which is why you are quite optimistic concerning the spread of America’s recession to the rest of the world. I am not so sure, though. True, there has been marked change in the global economy in the last thirty to forty years. Beside Europe, which has grown considerably, there has been impressive growth in several emerging economies, such as China and India. But looking from anyplace around the world, America is still hulking. It remains an engine of global growth. Crippled by recession, it cannot but affect us all in spite of all the changes you point out. Another global recession is still in the cards even though the odds are somewhat better against it than in the past.