A MERE GUESSING GAME (February 19, 2019)
There is much chatter on the World Wide Web about the next slump. Most of it has to do with stockmarkets, which are all over the place lately, but vacillating international trade is also in the focus. Whichever market is concerned, volatility is now reaching new peaks. Some major countries are already in so-called technical recession, and it is likely that their number will grow the next few years. The European Union is on the brink already. Sooner or later, depression will be bantered about one more time. Simply put, there are many signs of hard times to come. Still, there is not a word from economists of renown, Nobel laureates included, about the pending gloom. More to the point, there is no coherent explanation of the phenomenon. None of these economists had foreseen, let alone forecasted in plain numbers, the previous slump, and the whole profession thus suffered much criticism for its ineptness once the slump was obvious to all (see, e.g., “An Astonishing Record of Complete Failure,” June 1, 2014). As it turns out, nothing has changed in the intervening decade. Slumps remain a mystery to this day. Often lauded as a social science closest to natural sciences, economics is actually a mere guessing game. When it comes to stockmarkets, though, Nobel laureates in economics appear to be among the worst players around (see, e.g., “The Mathematics of Markets,” January 18, 2012). Quod erat demonstrandum.