FORECASTS, SCENARIOS (March 22, 2015)

I am not fond of fiction, let alone of fiction writers, but I am thinking about the creed increasingly often. Their vaunted creativity may have a useful function, after all. My thoughts are driven by dramatic climate change, it goes without saying. Credible forecasts of things to come are expected from scientists, but they are focusing on funny numbers, at least from the vantage point of an average human. The increase of the average temperature on earth is uppermost on their minds. What does that mean for any particular place on the planet’s surface, though? That is well beyond scientists, and this is where writers may be of help in years to come. They can come up with credible scenarios of things to come in place of barren forecasts. This is what I have been doing in connection with my hometown, as it were (“Motovun’s Defense Strategy,” August 11, 2014). The fortifications from the Thirteenth Century may well come useful once again in the Twenty-First. Thinking further along these lines, I can see the populations of Kaldir, Brkač, and Sveti Bartol huddled behind the stone walls as marauders keep coming in ever-larger numbers. Protecting the food supplies will be crucial to them, and not only life and limb. And so on. A writer in all but name, I may help my hometown more by thinking through scenarios of this kind than by trying to fathom scientific forecasts of all sorts. Enough said. Long live fiction!