A month ahead of the Paris climate talks, the United Nations has released its assessment of national plans to limit the impact of climate change submitted by one-hundred and forty-six countries so far. According to this assessment, the national plans are not sufficient to prevent the global temperatures from rising by more than the threshold of two degrees Celsius. Nevertheless, the UN claims that this goal is within reach in a month. The key challenge for the UN is to make the national plans legally binding when heads of government and negotiators meet in Paris in a month. Most important, the failure akin to that in Copenhagen in 2009 is not expected at this stage. The one-hundred and ninety-six countries around the world will most likely reach a binding agreement in Paris. In addition, a five-year review mechanism will track how countries are implementing national plans.

But every single article I have come across about the assessment just released by the UN is more or less explicitly dubious about the ultimate outcome of the ongoing international effort. Although everyone agrees that Paris is way ahead of Copenhagen, optimism about limiting the impact of climate change is sorely lacking. And this is the most likely fate of Paris climate talks. The emissions pledges will be there, all right, but few people in the know will trust the document signed by heads of government from around the world. One way or another, it will be just paper.

After a few five-year periods, but by 2030 at the latest, the review mechanism will most likely discredit the emissions pledges of so many countries that the international agreement will lose all its credibility. The ravages of climate change and environmental degradation will be undeniable by then, but each country will be on its own when it comes to dealing with them. By then, the UN will be obsolete, as well. And war will threaten many countries around the globe, which will further endanger all efforts to curb climate change. Plausible as it is, such a dire scenario is not investigated by anyone, at least not publically. How is this possible? If anything else, the most plausible results of a failure of the international effort should be there as a warning against confrontation, as well as an invitation to cooperation across the globe. What does this say about the human species at this stage of its evolution?

Addendum I (January 22, 2017)

Only a couple of days after the inauguration of Donald Trump as the forty-fifth American president, it is already obvious that this scenario is far from dire enough. Believing that climate change is a hoax, he has installed likeminded people in key positions across his administration. Many of them will do their best to breathe new life into the oil and coal industries of yesteryear. The agreement reached in Paris will be farthest from their minds. Given that America is one of the greatest contributors to climate change and environmental degradation around the globe, many other countries will follow its example in due time. The United Nations will be powerless against the slew of defections from the Paris accord, which may be dead in the water in no more than five years. Although America will be blamed for all the calamities of climate change lying ahead, Trump and his administration will remain aloof. Amerika über alles, as ever!

Addendum II (June 2, 2017)

At long last, the die is cast. Amerika—sorry, America—is out of the Paris accord. Although many a world leader is now vowing allegiance to the agreement reached in Paris in spite of Trump’s unilateral decision, the future of the global effort to address climate change is far from bright. The same holds for the United Nations, yet another hoax in Trump’s mind. Returning to the scenario, there can be no doubt any longer that it is not dire enough. Far from it, indeed. By 2030, World War III is a safe bet. If Trump is still around, Amerika will not join the fray, either. Ha-ha!

Addendum III (January 21, 2025)

Donald Trump, the forty-seventh president of the United States, signed an avalanche of executive orders in front of a huge crowd on his second inauguration day, which was yesterday. Once again, he withdrew his country from the Paris accord to the ovation of the crowd. The second-biggest polluter on earth has dropped out of the race to stop climate change for the second time. It is anyone’s guess what Trump’s successor on the American throne will do about this executive order, but it is already clear to everyone with some brains that climate change is well beyond control. Perilous storms, floods, and wildfires are popping up everywhere around the globe. Trump’s shenanigans will make no difference, but his executive order will be remembered for quite a while. The clown of clowns!