“YOU’RE NOT SUPPOSED TO UNDERSTAND THE FEDERAL RESERVE” (October 25, 2015)

Thus The New York Times today. “The United States central bank’s decision-making process is diffuse, opaque, and near-impossible to influence,” explains the newspaper, “just as it was intended to be.” I almost laughed when I read the byline. Pray, does this apply to economists, too? The main problem with the newspaper’s “explanation” is elsewhere, though. The first part has to do with understanding the Fed, whereas the second part has to do with influencing it.  Unfortunately, the two got garbled in the byline. The second part is just as the bank was intended to be, it goes without saying, but the first part is something entirely new. So as not to be influenced, the bank makes sure that it is not understood, either. And that includes the economists, who are a dime a dozen nowadays. When the Fed was put together in 1913, there were not too many economists who could understand its shenanigans, to be sure. Times have changed, and the Fed has turned into a mystery for all. And especially the economists, including the very best among them. Alan Greenspan started the guessing game, but Ben Bernanke made it even harder than his predecessor to figure out what was in store. Janet Yellen is still new to the job, but she is likely to surpass them both. Mystery, nothing but mystery.